lakeelmoleader.com
lakeelmoleader.com November 22, 2017


What do economists make of the GDP figures?

27 October 2017, 12:42 | Frank Carlson

The Bank of England in London | Leon Neal Getty Images

The Bank of England in London | Leon Neal  Getty Images

The rise is above expectations of 0.3%, as economists predicted growth in line with the first and second quarters of 2017.

Laith Khalaf, Senior Analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said this morning that "markets are now pricing in an 80% chance of a rate rise next week, but the central bank has disappointed on this score before".

The news will offer some relief in an economy which has suffered a slow 2017 so far, after quarterly growth remained flat at 0.3 per cent in the first half of the year.

Sterling shot up following the release, rising more than 0.3% against both the United States dollar and the euro to 1.317 and 1.119, respectively.

The uptick in Q3 growth was largely driven by a firmer rise in manufacturing and business services & finance output.

Manufacturing returned to growth in Q3 at 1 per cent, but construction contracted for a second quarter.

United Kingdom shares edged lower on Wednesday as a pullback in metals prices weighed on miners and better-than-expected GDP data increased the likelihood that the Bank of England will raise interest rates on November 2.

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The Chancellor, Philip Hammond, said of the performance: "We have a successful and resilient economy which is supporting a record number of people in employment".

"The figure may also provide support to the Governor of the Bank of England who is looking to raise interest rates this year and a stronger United Kingdom economy should increase the likelihood of this happening".

One rate rise, or more?

"The Bank argues that inflationary pressures could rise sharply if not checked by higher interest rates, and that the current low unemployment rate could lead to much faster wage growth".

However, he said such a move would be "largely symbolic" as it merely reverses the quarter-per-cent cut that the MPC made past year. "The key for investors will be to be discerning between those companies who will benefit from rising interest rates and stronger growth and those, particularly those with high levels of debt, for who increased rates may be more problematic".

Inflation in the United Kingdom has jumped to a five-and-a-half year high at 3%, while wage growth remains subdued.



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